July 21, 2023 The last several years have been full of unexpected surprises, with the most recent one being the lack of a recession given that many economists had been repeatedly predicting that one was surely just six months away. A recession has certainly seemed like it would be an obvious outcome when considering the … Continued
July 28, 2022 The financial market rollercoaster that we have all been on over the course of the last seven months has been tough to stomach even for the most seasoned of investors. Our collective anxiety is warranted given that the S&P 500 just had its second worst start to a year in history, and … Continued
July 20, 2020 Pondering the year 2020 so far is exhausting, and probably a little disorienting too. Many adjectives could apply given the mixed and ever-changing messages with regard to just about everything, coming from everywhere. Financial markets have only added to this heightened level of confusion for most people as the stock market initially … Continued
Following the market’s swoon last year, many investors became convinced that a recession was lurking right around the corner. After all, the stock market has proven to be a fairly reliable leading indicator before – and a steep sell-off is rarely just noise. Yet, the Federal Reserve quickly reversed course, stock markets responded with their … Continued
Is the yield curve telling us we are headed for a recession? Since the 1950’s, all U.S. recessions have been preceded by an inverted Treasury yield curve, which occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Given this historical correlation and the shape of the yield curve today, it is worth exploring this complicated … Continued
As we reflect on the last eight years, various stages of the economic and market recovery have unfolded like chapters in a book. Many parts have told a predictable tale and, at various times, we have been left wondering if there would be an unpredictable twist or a surprise ending. While the story may be … Continued
The decade leading up to the Great Depression was a period of significant technological advancement, broad cultural achievement and well-documented economic prosperity. Often overlooked, however, was that it was also a period of deep grief in the wake of World War I, the greatest trauma the world had known up until that moment. This unique combination … Continued
In Wall Street’s eyes, there are few things more troubling than uncertainty, which has been in no short supply during this current economic cycle. The severity of the recession, the slow recovery, atypical reaction of some asset classes and the level and degree of central bank intervention have all contributed to elevated concerns. One of … Continued