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Football, Central Banks, and the Great Deflation Debate

“Life imitates Art far more than Art imitates Life.” – Oscar Wilde In the run-up to this year’s Super Bowl, the New England Patriots found themselves playing defense against allegations tied to whether or not someone had intentionally deflated their footballs in order to improve their ability to grip them.  Just as the Patriots spent … Continued

How Low Can Oil Go?

Oil finished 2014 down a massive 46% – making it the worst performing asset class of 2014.  In The Wall Street Journal’s January 2014 economic forecasting survey, economists predicted oil would finish the year at approximately $95 a barrel, up from about $92 at the beginning of the year.  But – as we saw very … Continued

Still Waters Run Deep

“Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!” – Admiral Farragut (paraphrased), August 5th, 1864 In the final year of the American Civil War, as part of a larger effort to blockade Confederate ports, Admiral Farragut entered the heavily mined port of Mobile, Alabama.  Tethered, underwater mines were known as ‘”torpedoes” in those days.  As his fleet … Continued

Follow the Yellow Brick Road

Most people are familiar with the popular 1939 movie The Wizard of Oz. Far fewer, however, are familiar with the deeper storyline of the original book written in 1900 by Frank Baum as both a children’s novel and a parable about money reform in the late 1800s.  It also addresses the corresponding Midwestern political movement … Continued

The New “E”-conomy

“The problem with QE is it works in practice but it doesn’t work in theory.”  – Ben Bernanke’s quip in his final public appearance as Chairman of the Federal Reserve One of the more dangerous phrases used in the investment world is ceteris paribus.   All else is seldom equal and the market’s core narrative … Continued

Market Volatility: A Friend or Fright?

“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.”  – Warren Buffett With Halloween fast approaching, it appears the stock market has decided to let one of its seemingly long lost goblins out of the closet – volatility.  While most of us would prefer to … Continued

The Improving State of the State

“I busted a mirror and got seven years bad luck, but my lawyer thinks he can get me five.” – Steven Wright Seven years ago California was facing a severe budget crisis. The state’s expenses exceeded revenues, creating an unsustainable path for the state’s finances, which ultimately unwound with the Great Recession in 2008. By … Continued

Is It Time To Sell?

“You wish to surrender to me?  Very well, I accept.”  – The protagonist Westley in the novel The Princess Bride In the novel The Princess Bride, later made into a cult film, The Dread Pirate Roberts is not one person but several characters who successively take the same name in turn.  The arrangement thrives because … Continued

Germany Prevails – Will the E.U. be as Victorious?

Many Americans seem to have a love affair with Europe, but following several choppy years that included a long recession and a sovereign debt crisis, many investors have taken the region off their radar screen.  Without question the countries that make up the E.U. vary wildly, yet when combined they represent the largest economy in … Continued