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Recovery Bulls Climb the Mountain

“The hills are alive with the sound of music, with songs they have sung for a thousand years.” – The Sound of Music, Richard Rogers and Oscar Hammerstein II Are we at the top of the mountain, or are investors still scaling the foothills?  As we celebrate the 4th anniversary of the global economic recovery and … Continued

Fiscal Cliff Notes

“This is not a prediction, it is a certainty–there will be serious disruption in the world’s financial services industry…. It’s going to be ugly.” – The Times, London, 1999 (discussing the “Y2K” threat) Years ago in the midst of another date-specific moment in time, the world became obsessed that planes would drop from the sky … Continued

Resolutions

“It was on this day when a solemn vow was made that the peacock became the great object of admiration, and whether it appeared at the banquet given on these occasions roasted or in its natural state, it always wore its full plumage … before all the assembled chivalry … and each made his vow … Continued

Emerging Markets “Hukou Economics”

While domestic markets reached all-time highs in 2013, emerging markets stumbled and declined just over 2% for the year in comparison to the 27% returns in international developed markets.  On an absolute basis this doesn’t seem so bad but, looking back at history, the last time a performance differential between emerging and developed markets this … Continued

Sound the Alarm… Stay the Course

The media is overly focused on propagating a falsehood, specifically, that bonds are now riskier than stocks.  This is sensational financial journalism at best and, at its worst, potentially retirement damaging advice. It is a universally accepted truth that the 30-year plus tail wind to bond performance, caused by falling interest rates, is now behind … Continued

Unusual Circumstances

“His mind now misgave him; he began to doubt whether both he and the world around him were not bewitched. Surely this was his native village which he had left but the day before. There stood the Kaatskill mountains–there ran the silver Hudson at a distance–there was every hill and dale precisely as it had … Continued