October 21, 2020 This year will surely go down in the history books as one of the most puzzling in terms of reconciling much of the economic data with various trends that are difficult to justify given the challenging overall environment that so many people are facing. This has created two very different realities for … Continued
July 20, 2020 At some point in the not-too-distant future—whether through herd immunity, treatment, vaccine or a disease-state mutation—the health-related threat of the coronavirus will begin to fade away. While the exact timing of that seminal moment remains anybody’s guess, there is little doubt that post-pandemic life is going to look very different. Understanding just … Continued
Perhaps nothing reminds us more of summer than a family road trip where children, and often adults, become impatient after many hours on the road and begin to wonder, or loudly whine, “Are we there yet?” This summer we have another reason to ask ourselves a version of this classic question. As of the end … Continued
The world of investing is ever changing and teaches new lessons to even the most astute investors. For many in the industry, this is the hallmark of what keeps our work interesting and rewarding, even though the process can be incredibly humbling and frustrating at times. The last ten years underscore this inherent challenge, and … Continued
Is the yield curve telling us we are headed for a recession? Since the 1950’s, all U.S. recessions have been preceded by an inverted Treasury yield curve, which occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Given this historical correlation and the shape of the yield curve today, it is worth exploring this complicated … Continued
In a year characterized by the unexpected, maintaining a disciplined approach to managing your portfolio was our primary objective. During the unsettled economic environment that existed during the first half of the year, we used market volatility to rebalance your portfolio into the extreme sentiment we observed. In the second half, given the noteworthy risk … Continued
The unexpected victory of Donald Trump has been a reminder of the growing dissatisfaction many Americans have with the political establishment of this country. Even though we can look to history, which tells us elections and presidents don’t typically have a lasting impact on financial markets, many are questioning whether it will be different this … Continued
When the Federal Reserve ended its stimulative bond buying program, commonly known as “Quantitative Easing”, some investors questioned whether the U.S. economy would be able to support itself without additional stimulus. Since that time, the economy has continued to grow, albeit at a slow pace, and global equity markets have slogged through a volatile period … Continued
In Wall Street’s eyes, there are few things more troubling than uncertainty, which has been in no short supply during this current economic cycle. The severity of the recession, the slow recovery, atypical reaction of some asset classes and the level and degree of central bank intervention have all contributed to elevated concerns. One of … Continued
It has been almost seven years since the world’s economy and markets reached their global financial crisis lows. Since then, domestic stock and bond markets have recovered strongly but the economic cycle has been slow to progress, and the pace of growth has been disappointing relative to previous economic recoveries. In this lower-for-longer growth environment, … Continued