What to Make of the Yield Curve Inversion

Being upside-down, or inverted, can be disorienting as it defies gravity, and the sudden shift in balance can be dizzying and uncomfortable. In late March, the bond market encountered its own unsettling inversion when the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below the yield on the 3-month Treasury for the first time in over a … Continued

The Yield Curve and Recessions. Relationship Status: It’s Complicated

Is the yield curve telling us we are headed for a recession? Since the 1950’s, all U.S. recessions have been preceded by an inverted Treasury yield curve, which occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Given this historical correlation and the shape of the yield curve today, it is worth exploring this complicated … Continued

Fortune Favors the Prepared

The decade leading up to the Great Depression was a period of significant technological advancement, broad cultural achievement and well-documented economic prosperity. Often overlooked, however, was that it was also a period of deep grief in the wake of World War I, the greatest trauma the world had known up until that moment. This unique combination … Continued