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What a New Administration Could Mean for Municipal Bonds in 2021
Published Date : February 2, 2021
February 2, 2021
Municipal bonds ended a volatile 2020 with broad market indices up more than 5% for the year. With a new incoming administration, we now set our sights on what potential changes lie ahead for the muni market. At roughly $4 trillion in size, the national muni market is a vital part of state and local finances, a popular investment for taxable investors, and an asset class that is often impacted by election outcomes..
Given that most investors turn to municipal bonds for their tax-exempt income, any changes to tax policy would likely directly impact the outlook for the asset class. With a very slim Democratic majority now in Congress, the consensus view is that taxes are likely biased higher for top income earners and corporations. Higher taxes tend to increase demand for municipal bonds, which would likely, in our view, drive bond prices higher. Other areas of the tax code that will likely be up for review are AMT income thresholds, the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT), and the prohibition on tax-exempt advance refunding bonds.
Before it was prohibited under the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017, tax-exempt advance refunding was a common practice used by state and local governments to reduce borrowing costs by taking advantage of lower interest rates. You can think of this as being similar to how a homeowner refinances their mortgage after interest rates decline. In the current environment, we believe we could see a move to restore tax-exempt advance refunding bonds. This would be a credit positive for state and local governments as it would help reduce overall costs, and it would likely result in more tax-exempt issuance in the muni market.
While reviewing the tax code is on the agenda, the consensus view is that more economic stimulus will be the first priority. The most recently proposed economic stimulus package would provide $350 billion in aid to municipal governments. This would provide some welcome relief to local governments that did not receive any direct aid in the December stimulus bill. In terms of general credit conditions in the muni market, the initial impact of the pandemic has been uneven with higher default rates among hospitals, assisted living facilities and industrials. The extent of the damage thus far has also depended to some degree on how municipalities raise money. Communities that rely on tourist spending have done worse than those that rely on income taxes. Cities that rely on property taxes have fared better than cities that rely on sales tax revenue.
A policy issue that seems to have solid bipartisan support is infrastructure spending. The current proposal is for $2 trillion over the next four years to address infrastructure needs. While the devil is in the details, if the federal government launched a meaningful infrastructure package, this would be a positive development for the muni market. There is some government support for relaunching the ‘Build America Bond’ (BABs) Program, which began in 2009 as a response to the Great Recession. BABs reduced borrowing costs for state and local governments and rewarded bond holders with special tax credits. There has also been talk of additional aid for state and local governments dealing with climate change initiatives. A meaningful investment in infrastructure would certainly aid in the economic recovery by providing jobs and structural improvements to many communities in need.
As we think about what lies ahead for the municipal bond market, our outlook is favorable with strong investor demand, expectations of more fiscal stimulus, and an improving credit landscape. Municipal bonds should, in our view, continue to provide relative stability in the current environment and favorable after-tax income for investors in the year ahead.
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Information provided in written articles are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. There is a risk of loss from investments in securities, including the risk of loss of principal. The information contained herein reflects Sand Hill Global Advisors' (“SHGA”) views as of the date of publication. Such views are subject to change at any time without notice due to changes in market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. SHGA does not provide tax or legal advice. To the extent that any material herein concerns tax or legal matters, such information is not intended to be solely relied upon nor used for the purpose of making tax and/or legal decisions without first seeking independent advice from a tax and/or legal professional. SHGA has obtained the information provided herein from various third party sources believed to be reliable but such information is not guaranteed. Certain links in this site connect to other websites maintained by third parties over whom SHGA has no control. SHGA makes no representations as to the accuracy or any other aspect of information contained in other Web Sites. Any forward looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results are expected to vary from any such statements or forecasts. No reliance should be placed on any such statements or forecasts when making any investment decision. SHGA is not responsible for the consequences of any decisions or actions taken as a result of information provided in this presentation and does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of SHGA.
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All video presentations discuss certain investment products and/or securities and are being provided for informational purposes only, and should not be considered, and is not, investment, financial planning, tax or legal advice; nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investing in securities involves varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable or suitable for a particular client’s financial situation or risk tolerance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Individual performance results will vary. The opinions expressed in the video reflect Sand Hill Global Advisor’s (“SHGA”) or Brenda Vingiello’s (as applicable) views as of the date of the video. Such views are subject to change at any point without notice. Any comments, opinions, or recommendations made by any host or other guest not affiliated with SHGA in this video do not necessarily reflect the views of SHGA, and non-SHGA persons appearing in this video do not fall under the supervisory purview of SHGA. You should not treat any opinion expressed by SHGA or Ms. Vingiello as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of general opinion. Nothing presented herein is or is intended to constitute investment advice, and no investment decision should be made based solely on any information provided on this video. There is a risk of loss from an investment in securities, including the risk of loss of principal. Neither SHGA nor Ms. Vingiello guarantees any specific outcome or profit. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts contained in the video are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any such statements or forecasts. SHGA or one of its employees may have a position in the securities discussed and may purchase or sell such securities from time to time. Some of the information in this video has been obtained from third party sources. While SHGA believes such third-party information is reliable, SHGA does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness or completeness. SHGA encourages you to consult with a professional financial advisor prior to making any investment decision.
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