In the spirit of the holiday season, Sand Hill has made a donation to Second Harvest of Silicon Valley.read more
The Coming Deglobalization
Fifty years ago, Air Force One, recently renamed the “Spirit of ‘76” in honor of our nation’s pending bicentennial, landed at the Shanghai airport. When its door opened and President Richard Nixon walked out, it was the first time in 25 years that diplomatic relations had reopened between the two countries. The significance of Nixon’s trip went far beyond just normalizing relations however, as it marked the start of what would become a dramatic change in worldwide economic growth, wealth distribution, and importantly, help trigger decades of subdued inflation.
At that time, the U.S. stood alone as the wealthiest and most powerful economy in the world. And that prosperity resulted in rising manufacturing and labor costs, which in turn led to U.S. companies seeking cheaper manufacturing centers elsewhere in the world. China, with their lower cost of production, complemented by their managed currency exchange rate, became that spot. Subsequent advances in computing and telecommunication, improving global supply chains, generally low commodity prices, and relative worldwide peace and stability, all further helped to keep prices low and constrained for decades to the benefit of consumers everywhere.
But nothing lasts forever.
Today, China has become an economic and military superpower—with prosperity, rising wages, and higher manufacturing costs to go with it. Additionally, China’s geopolitical priorities have progressively diverged from those of the U.S.; and following the CV-19 lockdowns, global supply chains have become increasingly dysfunctional. Meanwhile, Europe is wrestling with how to reverse decades of built-up interdependence with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. The breakdown of those trade relationships, and the likely long-duration sanctions that have been put in place, are triggering reshoring and alt-shoring considerations as the risk of interdependence rises. That reality, combined with years of excessive government spending, unprecedented quantitative easing, rising regulation, a shrinking labor force and a global evolution towards cleaner burning fuels, among other contributing factors, have collectively contributed to a new and rather profound inflationary cycle, one that will likely persist for many years, if not decades, to come.
While this is all an unpleasant reality, we believe that reality should be taken in stride. In part, this is because despite the global supply shocks of this moment, uncertainty usually resolves itself and severe trade diversions ultimately reset gradually. This is one of the reasons why today’s inflation readings are so elevated, but this phenomenon is unlikely to persist for long at the current feverish pace. In fact, many of the vexing supply chain disruptions are expected to dissipate as we distance ourselves from the pandemic. And should we be so fortunate as to see geopolitical tensions deescalate, those developments would also contribute to a relative calming of the waters.
But the combined impact of the multi-year global pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions, and significant commodity price shocks have clearly reset the world in a new direction. Even if society and the current economic environment normalizes, as we anticipate, we likely will find ourselves at the start of a new era that is manageable but less forgiving. Afterall, the world is a very different place than when President Nixon stepped onto that foreign tarmac fifty years ago. Today, many are acknowledging that the globalization pendulum appears to have swung too far—and that is a transformative realization worth planning for over the long horizon.
Articles and Commentary
Information provided in written articles are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. There is a risk of loss from investments in securities, including the risk of loss of principal. The information contained herein reflects Sand Hill Global Advisors' (“SHGA”) views as of the date of publication. Such views are subject to change at any time without notice due to changes in market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. SHGA does not provide tax or legal advice. To the extent that any material herein concerns tax or legal matters, such information is not intended to be solely relied upon nor used for the purpose of making tax and/or legal decisions without first seeking independent advice from a tax and/or legal professional. SHGA has obtained the information provided herein from various third party sources believed to be reliable but such information is not guaranteed. Certain links in this site connect to other websites maintained by third parties over whom SHGA has no control. SHGA makes no representations as to the accuracy or any other aspect of information contained in other Web Sites. Any forward looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results are expected to vary from any such statements or forecasts. No reliance should be placed on any such statements or forecasts when making any investment decision. SHGA is not responsible for the consequences of any decisions or actions taken as a result of information provided in this presentation and does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of SHGA.
All video presentations discuss certain investment products and/or securities and are being provided for informational purposes only, and should not be considered, and is not, investment, financial planning, tax or legal advice; nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investing in securities involves varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable or suitable for a particular client’s financial situation or risk tolerance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Individual performance results will vary. The opinions expressed in the video reflect Sand Hill Global Advisor’s (“SHGA”) or Brenda Vingiello’s (as applicable) views as of the date of the video. Such views are subject to change at any point without notice. Any comments, opinions, or recommendations made by any host or other guest not affiliated with SHGA in this video do not necessarily reflect the views of SHGA, and non-SHGA persons appearing in this video do not fall under the supervisory purview of SHGA. You should not treat any opinion expressed by SHGA or Ms. Vingiello as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of general opinion. Nothing presented herein is or is intended to constitute investment advice, and no investment decision should be made based solely on any information provided on this video. There is a risk of loss from an investment in securities, including the risk of loss of principal. Neither SHGA nor Ms. Vingiello guarantees any specific outcome or profit. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts contained in the video are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any such statements or forecasts. SHGA or one of its employees may have a position in the securities discussed and may purchase or sell such securities from time to time. Some of the information in this video has been obtained from third party sources. While SHGA believes such third-party information is reliable, SHGA does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness or completeness. SHGA encourages you to consult with a professional financial advisor prior to making any investment decision.